Coronavirus angst returns. OPEC recommends 1.5M bpd cut. Poloz to speak this afternoon.
Erik Bregar of Exchange Bank of Canada - InsideFutures.com - Thu Mar 05, 9:59AM CST

ANALYSIS

USDCAD

Yesterdays Biden rally in risk sentiment has fizzled out in overnight trade as coronavirus angst has returned. Californias declaration of a state of emergency, the fact that the US has only done 500 tests to date, and Australias beefing up of its inbound travel restrictions appeared to the catalysts. The S&P futures are down 1.8% at this hour, US 10s have fallen 12bp to 0.94%, and the implied Fed funds rate for the March 18thFOMC meeting has fallen to 0.788% (which means the markets are pricing in a 84% chance that the Fed cuts another 50bp in 2 weeks!). USDCAD isbenefitingfrom the broad risk-off tone and its now trading back near yesterdays session highs in the 1.3420s.

OPEC has proposed a deepening of existing oil production cuts by 1.5M bpd (much larger than expected), but this has yet to be discussed with Russia, who OPEC is recommending will share 0.5M bpd of the total. The April crude oil market is understandably not excited about these headlines and remains below this weeks stubborn chart resistance in the low 48sanother mild USDCAD positive at this hour. Russia joins the conversation tomorrow.

All eyes will be on Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz at 1pmET this afternoon to explain the reasoning behind yesterdays 50bp interest rate cut. The text of his speech will be released at 12:45pmET. The OIS markets are currently pricing in a 65% chance that the Canadian central bank will cut rates by another 25bp at its next policy meeting on April 15. US Factory Orders for January come out at 10amET this morning, with traders expecting -0.1% MoM vs +1.8% for December.

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD HOURLY

USDCAD HOURLY

APR CRUDE OIL DAILY

APR CRUDE OIL DAILY


EURUSD

The deterioration in risk sentiment and the renewed downside pressure on US interest rates is seeing EURUSD trade right back to its recent highs in the 1.1160-80s this morning. This level continues to act as resistance for the market however as traders now await a 1blnEUR option expiry at 1.1175-80 and the US Factory Orders data, both at 10amET. April gold futures have now completely recouped theirlosses from last Friday, thanks to the continued fall in US yields.

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD HOURLY

EURUSD HOURLY

APRIL GOLD DAILY

APRIL GOLD DAILY


GBPUSD

Sterling broke above 1.2830s trend-line resistance in NY trade yesterday and it has now shot up toits next major ceiling in the 1.2900-1.2920 area. The catalyst appears to have beencomments from incoming Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey. When asked about whether the BOE should cut interest rates before the next scheduled decision on March 26, Bailey said:

"The Monetary Policy Committee hasn't in its history tended to do that but there is nothing that in the constitution of the Monetary Policy Committee to stop that happening. I think what we need frankly is more evidence than we have at the moment, as to exactly how this is feeding through. We have got a building picture of evidence. The Bank of England is ... working extremely hard on it. I have been engaged on it this week, and I think then we can reach our judgment."

The implied overnight target rate for March 26 is now trading at 0.4009%, which is 7bp higher than yesterdays levels. Michel Barniers negative sounding comments, about there being serious differences with Britain after the first round of trade deal talks, appear to be part of whats capping GBPUSD heading into NY trade. Moreherefrom Reuters.

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD HOURLY

GBPUSD HOURLY

EURGBP DAILY

EURGBP DAILY


AUDUSD

The Australian dollar closed NY trade right at trend-line resistance in the 0.6620s yesterday. This wasnt a bullish enough close in our opinion to warrant further upside follow-through into Asian trade last night, and so AUDUSD meandered around for the most part. The conoravirus-driven, risk-off tone has been palpable today though ever since the start of European trade, and were now seeing AUDUSD pullback below the 0.66 handle. We see chart support today in the 0.6580s, then the 0.6540s.

China-specific coronavirus headlines have been out of the limelight over the last week as the focus very much remains on pandemic risks for the western world. USDCNH has largely been following the collapse in US interest rates, but the market seems like it wants to form a short term base today in the 6.93-6.94 area.

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD HOURLY

USDCNH DAILY

USDCNH DAILY


USDJPY

Dollar/yen is not getting any help today as an escalation in coronavirus fears pulls the US 10yr yield right back towards yesterday lows. Trend-line chart support in the 106.90s has just given way, leaving the market in a rather precarious spot. The S&P futures are now trading down 1.9% on the session.

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY HOURLY

US 10YR BOND YIELD DAILY

US 10YR BOND YIELD DAILY

Charts: Reuters Eikon

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