Where were you when the oil market died yesterday?
Erik Bregar of Exchange Bank of Canada - InsideFutures.com - Tue Apr 21, 10:04AM CDT

ANALYSIS

USDCAD

Dollar/CAD finally caught a bid yesterday but it wasnt until oil prices went negative heading into the NYMEX close. The May WTI futures contract made history by closing down a whopping 305% to -$37.63/barrel as physical grades of US crude oil essentially became worthless to market participants who couldnt find ways to store it. One could have made the argument that the fireworks in WTI was a temporary dislocation in the oil markets and that it would pass when the May contract expires today, but the June contract has since made a mockery of that narrative and therelative calm we saw in the broader risk tone yesterday. June WTI futures prices fell below key chart support at $21.65 shortly after the NYMEX close (the March 18thlows) and then proceeded to crash 45% lower to $11.79 at the start of European trade today!...if crude oil is worthless for May, why would it have any value for June?

Some concern about Kim Jung Uns health caused some risk-off flows in Asian trade last night, which finally got USDCAD above the 1.4140s resistance level, but it was this mornings continued oil rout that helped extend the market to the extended top end of its recent range (the 1.4230-50 level we talked about on Friday). This level is now serving as chart resistance as June WTI bounces 37% higher into NY trade. Canada just reported some mixed Retail Sales figures for the month of February (see below), but nobody cares.

CANADA FEB RETAIL SALES +0.3 PCT (VS +0.2% Exp) , EX-AUTOS -0.0 PCT (VS +0.3% EXP)


USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD HOURLY

USDCAD HOURLY

JUNE CRUDE OIL DAILY

JUNE CRUDE OIL DAILY


EURUSD

Euro/dollar lost chart support in the 1.0850s last night after CNN reported that Kim Jung Un was in grave danger after undergoing surgery, according to a US intelligence official with direct knowledge of the matter. South Korean and Chinese authorities later denied the reports, but it was too late when it came to unleashing some risk-off flows across markets as traders fretted about a power vacuum in North Korea. New Zealands central bank governor, Adrian Orr, didnt help the broader risk mood by admitting (perhaps accidently) that he remained open minded on direct monetization of government debt.

Germanys ZEW Economic Sentiment survey for April defied belief when it blew away expectations this morning (28.2 vs -42.3) and, while we think this was largely wishful thinking on the part of German businesses, we think this headline is helping EUR outperform relatively speaking today. It isnt succumbing to the oil-driven demand for dollarsnearly as much as what were seeing in AUD, CAD and GBP today. Perhaps the range trade for EURUSD can continue a little longer still. Chart support today checks in at the 1.0810s while the 1.0850s has now become resistance.


EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD HOURLY

EURUSD HOURLY

SPOT GOLD DAILY

SPOT GOLD DAILY


GBPUSD

Sterling has fallen apart today and it all started with GBPUSD losing chart support at the 1.2430s on the North Korean headlines last night. Matters were made worse at the start of European trade today when June WTI prices began to nosedive, leading to broad USD demand. The UK reported some outdated employment data for February this morning (+172k jobs and +2.8% 3M/Y growth in wages), but this is old news and not nearly as important as fresh sentiment data, like the German ZEW we saw earlier. The Bank of Englands Andy Haldane is now speaking and we have to admit he sounds downright depressed. Highlights below:

But fear not

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD HOURLY

GBPUSD HOURLY

EURGBP DAILY

EURGBP DAILY

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar continued to lead everything higher into the London fix yesterday, but the market then struggled as trend-line resistance in the 0.6390 re-asserted itself and as May WTI ultimately went negative. The AUD mirrored the decline in CAD after the NYMEX close and it was made worse by the North Korean/RBNZ headlines last night. Traders are now trying to hold last Wednesday/Thursdays lows in the 0.6270-80s this morning, but its not looking good so far. A move below this chart support level could open up a slippery slide to the 0.6210-30s.


AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD HOURLY

USDCNH DAILY

USDCNH DAILY


USDJPY

Dollar/yen slipped below its familiar 107.50-70 range last night after headlines circulated about North Koreas leader being gravely ill. NBC News went so far as to claim that Kim Jung Un was brain dead, but then later deleted the tweet out of an abundance of caution. South Korean and Chinese authorities then denied the the reports out of the US media, but it was too late to deny the yen its traditional safe-haven bid off negative North Korean headlines.

The market has since found a bid into NY trade as oil-driven risk-off flows permeate their way through the broader markets again. The US 10yr yield is re-testing key support at the 0.55% handle. The S&P futures are trading another 2% lower after falling 2% yesterday. The June WTI futures contract is currently trading -30% after being down 45% in early European trade this morning.

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY HOURLY

US 10 YR YIELD DAILY

US 10 YR YIELD DAILY

Charts: Reuters Eikon

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